NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9af30b7b379eeccce76cee44ecfe60905ec057fcd71d7d86103919bddd04b87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6c6…6d67backed Under | 7c | 1,604$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…801cbacked Over | 62c | 808.42$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 38c | 764.49$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.51 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Under | 42c | 479.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 323 | 47.1%152 W · 171 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 66c | 238.38$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.04 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 58c | 189.25$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 42c | 170.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb275…c76fbacked Over | 62c | 162.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 57c | 161.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 41c | 149.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 40c | 135$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 58c | 122.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 121.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Over | 61c | 115.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 114$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 63c | 103.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 37c | 96.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 84.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over | 66c | 82.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 77.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 44c | 73.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 64c | 54.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 64c | 53.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Over | 60c | 47.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 39c | 43.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 41c | 39.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 41c | 38.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f2…3de3backed Under | 41c | 30.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Over | 59c | 29.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 65c | 27.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…2988backed Over | 62c | 24.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…1e0bbacked Over | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…dd4dbacked Over | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5this page
- DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Keegan Murray: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Kings vs. SpursSpurs won
- Kings vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5Over won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Over won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Over won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5Over won
- Maxime Raynaud: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Kings won
- Spread: Spurs (-18.5)Kings won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.