NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc397e5f21984ead62259085f35edbbb230353be81c37b73ef62a6b1da8bcf2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 57c | 35,564$20,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,448.03 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…7c26backed Under | 43c | 17,700$7,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,611 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 56c | 15,074$8,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,613.2 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Under | 43c | 6,808$2,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,927.43 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 6,498$2,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,924.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 44c | 6,370$2,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,802.8 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 54c | 3,344$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.19 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Under | 49c | 2,306$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.91 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 2,046$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.52 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 44c | 1,618$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 43c | 928.45$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.91 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Under | 44c | 809.09$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 737.65$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.78 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 639.13$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.03 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 44c | 612$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.28 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 43c | 602.21$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.27 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 517.89$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.69 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 511.36$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 39c | 478.38$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.78 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 44c | 404.04$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.78 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f6…21bebacked Under | 44c | 345.45$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…c760backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Under | 44c | 228.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 56c | 182.24$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Under | 44c | 180$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 53c | 164.96$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.53 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 62c | 140.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 44c | 129.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 44c | 112.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 44c | 101.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 47c | 94.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 35c | 92.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 44c | 91.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 56c | 81.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Over | 57c | 80.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 179 | 60.9%109 W · 70 L | +17.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Under | 43c | 74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed Under | 44c | 66.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5e…d655backed Under | 43c | 56.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 45c | 54.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 42c | 48.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8758backed Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 43.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…fc8abacked Under | 48c | 42.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 57c | 41.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 43c | 32.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…54d3backed Over | 54c | 30.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1046…7041backed Under | 47c | 29.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5e…da36backed Under | 47c | 28.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fc…7e5cbacked Over | 54c | 27.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 48c | 26.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Under | 47c | 26.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7838…cd45backed Under | 44c | 23.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d9…a144backed Over | 54c | 22.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7931…020abacked Over | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…e0b4backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…5ebbbacked Over | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5this page
- DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Keegan Murray: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Kings vs. SpursSpurs won
- Kings vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Over won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Over won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Over won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5Over won
- Maxime Raynaud: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Kings won
- Spread: Spurs (-18.5)Kings won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.