NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x055dc89ebb5020e36708cc692d3ff0dde28134a364ea88434f98e464b9233850
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 54c | 25,275$13,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,626.57 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 54c | 14,563$7,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,674.77 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 11,260$5,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,089.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Under | 46c | 11,056$5,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,053.46 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under | 46c | 6,483$2,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,982.09 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 45c | 6,358$2,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,878.36 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 1,919$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.95 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 50c | 1,907$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.42 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 50c | 1,807$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.23 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 1,516$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.77 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 46c | 1,239$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.94 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 45c | 826$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.7 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 46c | 738$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.48 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Under | 45c | 619$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.55 | 544 | 43%234 W · 310 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 616.4$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.54 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 524$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 56c | 523.21$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 45c | 448$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 44c | 430.04$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.25 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…34debacked Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 373.57$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.14 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 55c | 294$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Under | 46c | 253.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 179 | 60.9%109 W · 70 L | +17.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 215.44$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.79 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 46c | 199.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Under | 46c | 175.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 48c | 151$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 135.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 45c | 102.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…fc12backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d8…480bbacked Over | 56c | 99.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Over | 57c | 89.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…4fa6backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Under | 45c | 76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 46c | 71.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 55.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 49c | 51.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 51.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed Under | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 46.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 48c | 34.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 45c | 33.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 54c | 29.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd430…78b8backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 49c | 25.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Over | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 56c | 20.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5this page
- DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Keegan Murray: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Kings vs. SpursSpurs won
- Kings vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Over won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5Over won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Over won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5Over won
- Maxime Raynaud: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Kings won
- Spread: Spurs (-18.5)Kings won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.