NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa406f718b72bad2ec38a57bcfc043f485430986f7839ecdcd5bd78f0f9df3aaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 52c | 59,263$30,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,446.33 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Under | 48c | 30,000$14,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,399.98 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 48c | 15,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,199.98 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 48c | 14,754$7,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,081.73 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.99 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebba…383cbacked Under | 48c | 1,478$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.32 | 240 | 50.8%122 W · 118 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 54c | 1,218$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.25 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 51c | 1,090$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.69 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 51c | 1,065$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.97 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 53c | 850$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.5 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 759.49$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 46c | 725$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.5 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 657.01$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Over | 52c | 526.01$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.48 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 53c | 362$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.14 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 64c | 268.97$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 266.8$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…987ebacked Under | 46c | 209.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -8.3wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Over | 55c | 207.3$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 52c | 203$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.39 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 177.34$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 53c | 167.49$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 44c | 158.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 127.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 32c | 105.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 101.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 52c | 82.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b06…10a7backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 52c | 62.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 488 | 52%254 W · 234 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…3896backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e5…1f2fbacked Over | 54c | 53.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 47c | 48.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 57c | 44.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Over | 53c | 41.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 44c | 39.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f6…fed6backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Over | 54c | 24.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e3…c0bbbacked Over | 71c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 70c | 19.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 72c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5this page
- DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Keegan Murray: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Kings vs. SpursSpurs won
- Kings vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Over won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5Over won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Over won
- Kings vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5Over won
- Maxime Raynaud: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Kings won
- Spread: Spurs (-18.5)Kings won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.