TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Almanak FDV above $160M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,036
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,036 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd2d…84e6backed Yes12c5,719$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.447240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00aa…17edbacked Yes55c3,640$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.9440%0 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8498…2460backed Yes67c1,198$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.6520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes22c1,138$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.72520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-69.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3b6…86abbacked No25c1,057$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.064425%11 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf4d…1ee4backed Yes12c863.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No31c835$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.6523841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x843a…4c52backed Yes12c825.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2c9b…7a04backed No77c804.4$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.734751.1%24 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e6…3218backed No74c757.9$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.152665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+268.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes4c653$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.72773.9%3 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x129b…24c4backed No54c638.74$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.835851.7%30 W · 28 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7402…6a0cbacked Yes12c629.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.97439.2%29 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59b8…26b2backed Yes25c600$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3252…81cfbacked Yes18c600$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1083732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ae…772dbacked Yes26c541.51$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401060%6 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+59.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed Yes45c519.99$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2365149%25 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c501.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.292541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes3c500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7452.2%1 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-60.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.21122.7%3 W · 109 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea07…d8b7backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80b8…4b89backed Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x898f…894fbacked Yes27c452.58$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+51.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f21…8b6abacked No71c419.99$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.95771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9a…d9d7backed Yes23c414.32$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.512227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.6wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-55.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x037b…4166backed Yes26c410.25$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21190.8%1 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x124e…ab7cbacked Yes22c390.48$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No72c389.75$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3210756.1%60 W · 47 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb943…b538backed No79c383.54$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c9…d693backed Yes13c340$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.670%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes21c333.54$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.042218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-55.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebb…c666backed No64c330.83$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.55988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick65cpaid+39.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22c6…cf2abacked No79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd32…c9c1backed No79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4030…14c0backed Yes16c259.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-65.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5592…fdc4backed Yes21c256$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2560…a34fbacked No76c250$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602552%13 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+74.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7140…31febacked No73c246.43$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.361369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c242.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.357663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked No66c232.5$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.751540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d7…61b8backed No32c230$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.73557.1%20 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No78c220$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.615362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes17c214.56$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccce…e7b5backed Yes26c206.89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.26520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-54.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4216740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x47eb…e894backed No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501060%6 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203225%8 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid+23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x149d…24babacked No69c199.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedda…2e39backed Yes21c194.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb70a…692ebacked Yes31c193.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d06…00d4backed No35c186.73$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.734468.2%30 W · 14 L+12.3wins+0.28per pick40cpaid+70.5%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes10c182.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5725422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No78c175.12$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2310370.9%73 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc31…a289backed No74c135.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.272075%15 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…2ecdbacked Yes19c125$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.252133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+36.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce7e…e65fbacked No55c120$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.161464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa33…372ebacked Yes11c111.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.221942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd097…959fbacked Yes10c111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+58.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb171…32f0backed Yes27c110$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.74219%8 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fd…8263backed Yes25c109.27$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce43…61cdbacked Yes18c108.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8203…0187backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.8wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-84%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xad25…5473backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38cc…d5cfbacked No34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667042.9%30 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a76…c4e9backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704647.8%22 W · 24 L+6.7wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+52.6%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xe92d…e158backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-85.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x735b…bbf3backed No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a8…9850backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e24…ec07backed No70c99.27$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.781637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-38.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes37c96.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3646320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x37bc…dc95backed No77c95.79$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7510100%10 W · 0 L+3.6wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+63.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4522…ff26backed Yes21c95.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ff…1775backed Yes21c90.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.021266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked No70c80$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244571.1%32 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5986…83e3backed Yes71c80$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.41827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dc0…5f47backed Yes18c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick38cpaid-81.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes19c79.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8616927.8%47 W · 122 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No78c70$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.17334.2%25 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee2…0b0fbacked No79c69.86$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.861154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+95.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes20c64.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8115637.2%58 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed No79c63.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5518144.8%81 W · 100 L+23.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+55.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xede3…e3f2backed No28c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435831%18 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked No73c55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.73036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes21c51.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4713054.6%71 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e41…23a2backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111520%3 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-50.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c48$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4421240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffbe…1dfabacked Yes47c42.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6386…17dfbacked No69c40.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.74475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f99…a5dfbacked Yes69c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked Yes71c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf1ba…c903backed No56c35.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.794100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+115.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14b9…f378backed No51c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ba8…bffcbacked No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10fb…8ca5backed No79c28.32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No74c27.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0820422.1%45 W · 159 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed No56c25.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.212948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea42…cab7backed No49c21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41dc…1cf1backed No51c20.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.031464.3%9 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.29per pick35cpaid+92.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb26c…c307backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.