Token Launches · resolved market
Will Almanak FDV above $160M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd58919635eb532df77366c0580d8dd4ff2944f4e803329b47f5d8570da9413e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed Yes | 12c | 5,719$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.44 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00aa…17edbacked Yes | 55c | 3,640$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…2460backed Yes | 67c | 1,198$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,138$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked No | 25c | 1,057$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.06 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4d…1ee4backed Yes | 12c | 863.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 31c | 835$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.65 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…4c52backed Yes | 12c | 825.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…7a04backed No | 77c | 804.4$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.73 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…3218backed No | 74c | 757.9$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.15 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +268.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 653$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 54c | 638.74$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.83 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked Yes | 12c | 629.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…81cfbacked Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…772dbacked Yes | 26c | 541.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…e757backed Yes | 45c | 519.99$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 501.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…d8b7backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…4b89backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…894fbacked Yes | 27c | 452.58$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…8b6abacked No | 71c | 419.99$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…d9d7backed Yes | 23c | 414.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…4166backed Yes | 26c | 410.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…ab7cbacked Yes | 22c | 390.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 72c | 389.75$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.32 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb943…b538backed No | 79c | 383.54$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c9…d693backed Yes | 13c | 340$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 21c | 333.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…c666backed No | 64c | 330.83$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.55 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…cf2abacked No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd32…c9c1backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…14c0backed Yes | 16c | 259.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…fdc4backed Yes | 21c | 256$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…a34fbacked No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…31febacked No | 73c | 246.43$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 242.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked No | 66c | 232.5$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…61b8backed No | 32c | 230$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.7 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 78c | 220$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 17c | 214.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…e7b5backed Yes | 26c | 206.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…e894backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x149d…24babacked No | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed Yes | 21c | 194.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…692ebacked Yes | 31c | 193.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…00d4backed No | 35c | 186.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.73 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +12.3wins | +0.28per pick | 40cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 182.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 78c | 175.12$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 103 | 70.9%73 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…a289backed No | 74c | 135.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…2ecdbacked Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7e…e65fbacked No | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…372ebacked Yes | 11c | 111.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd097…959fbacked Yes | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…32f0backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…8263backed Yes | 25c | 109.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce43…61cdbacked Yes | 18c | 108.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…0187backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -84%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…5473backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…d5cfbacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…c4e9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…e158backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x735b…bbf3backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…9850backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…ec07backed No | 70c | 99.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 96.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x37bc…dc95backed No | 77c | 95.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ff26backed Yes | 21c | 95.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ff…1775backed Yes | 21c | 90.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 71c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc0…5f47backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 19c | 79.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…0b0fbacked No | 79c | 69.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 20c | 64.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 79c | 63.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…e3f2backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 21c | 51.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…23a2backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffbe…1dfabacked Yes | 47c | 42.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6386…17dfbacked No | 69c | 40.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f99…a5dfbacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ba…c903backed No | 56c | 35.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14b9…f378backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bffcbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…8ca5backed No | 79c | 28.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 74c | 27.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb631…8a87backed No | 56c | 25.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…cab7backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…1cf1backed No | 51c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…c307backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Almanak FDV above $160M one day after launch?this page
- Will Almanak FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Will Almanak FDV above $120M one day after launch?No won
- Will Almanak FDV above $140M one day after launch?No won
- Will Almanak FDV above $250M one day after launch?No won
- Will Almanak FDV above $50M one day after launch?No won
- Will Almanak FDV above $80M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.