Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbade2032beae36c01fdd9bf4caef7bed88774b73f43552456f472b57af50fe2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 1c | 7,810$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…5b8fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,077$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 4c | 1,146$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…7285backed Yes | 17c | 747.41$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 683.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed Yes | 4c | 646$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 2c | 616.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes | 6c | 541$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 2c | 490$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 473.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 4c | 436.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked Yes | 5c | 399$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 383.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 6c | 346$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 11c | 332.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 6c | 308$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 6c | 267$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe5…711abacked Yes | 16c | 234.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 6c | 227$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…84c5backed Yes | 8c | 200.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 13c | 171.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 164$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 73c | 158.59$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…4877backed Yes | 19c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 73c | 128.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 17c | 109.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 19c | 79.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 66c | 79.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…39ccbacked Yes | 24c | 50.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…6fa5backed No | 78c | 24.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcad…0047backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?this page
- Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.