Space · resolved market
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf226940b079f9257169ba3243f495dc8228443a254b862532d180a85b0a7e472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 7,632$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 4c | 7,148$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 9c | 4,937$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 14c | 4,697$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 1,614$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.31 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,423$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…1743backed Yes | 19c | 1,347$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,241$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 1,037$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 1,031$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed Yes | 7c | 1,030$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049d…0f3fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,030$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 16c | 967$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 13c | 866$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed Yes | 5c | 821$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…3340backed Yes | 15c | 680$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d17…c95cbacked Yes | 15c | 647$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Yes | 16c | 628.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 9c | 559.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 9c | 522.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed Yes | 5c | 513$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 3c | 499.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 476.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 16c | 423.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 8c | 407.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 404.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes | 5c | 364$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 5c | 280$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 15c | 253.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 4c | 252$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed Yes | 5c | 247$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 6c | 245$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 5c | 239$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes | 6c | 234$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 13c | 233.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 14c | 230$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed Yes | 6c | 226$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 5c | 216$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 5c | 215$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked Yes | 6c | 204$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5365…71fcbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cc…4da3backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed Yes | 6c | 179$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed Yes | 15c | 164.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa5…fdcbbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…0750backed Yes | 17c | 100.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…589cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 14c | 99.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.