TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,508

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,021 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4dd9…51fbbacked No0c6,406$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.47per pick16cpaid+304.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No47c4,289$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.0937740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No29c3,663$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.6748923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes70c2,262$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.1918338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes56c1,990$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.6520143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No35c1,755$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.9438237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes51c1,626$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.6364339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No2c1,378$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.294928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked Yes44c1,362$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.722259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb214…a6aabacked Yes42c1,216$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.28580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+84.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09bf…b9d6backed Yes60c1,146$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+47.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06c1…f1f2backed Yes43c983$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.31666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa8d…fc01backed No28c939$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.92933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd22a…ac22backed Yes55c937$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.651154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab92…15ddbacked No29c930$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.71250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcae4…ccecbacked Yes70c913$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.91258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86a2…02c0backed No60c894$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.41258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc70…50c0backed No45c885$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed Yes73c877$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.792748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+34%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d2…39f0backed Yes71c876$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…115ebacked No31c865$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.152045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed No34c864$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.072759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed No58c844$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.521346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes44c838$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.282552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes52c837$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.761968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.23per pick45cpaid+81.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked No56c832$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.922050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes48c823.02$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.3336750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7786…7914backed Yes40c819.01$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.41966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes51c816$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.842339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2232…a794backed Yes75c800$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+83.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x528f…7572backed Yes53c799$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.532441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34be…6797backed No29c789$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.81728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes40c777$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.22737%10 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc536…589ebacked Yes72c759$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.52862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb74c…9c72backed No48c754$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.921030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd134…5558backed Yes47c742$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.261643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5be7…46eebacked No49c740$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.61637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-30.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8e0…a63bbacked No30c736$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.81216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-72.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No39c728.09$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.2779.1%7 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbbe…f1d5backed No28c703$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.842763%17 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x851c…346cbacked Yes65c693.63$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.14475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed No60c688$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.81855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+46.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…6e2ebacked No29c679$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.91955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+128.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5829…e46bbacked No56c653$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.68825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid+16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes52c641$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.681369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+105.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7270…add3backed No48c637$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.761643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ae…8598backed No53c636$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.082352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+63.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x486b…3ea7backed Yes58c632$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.441346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ac7…78c7backed No47c627$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.69944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed Yes51c616$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.482055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bfa…4578backed No25c587$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b8…ac4cbacked No56c562$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.721346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88f1…8e46backed No29c551$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.791145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes71c535.11$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.826549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed No40c530$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2122552%13 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x416c…8dcebacked Yes50c528$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2641050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+74.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…36b2backed No57c523$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.11837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7e…275ebacked No42c522$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.24837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes72c522$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.161471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+106.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x523d…cc1dbacked No27c507$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.891020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3684…9669backed Yes71c507$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.031330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x50eb…c59fbacked No49c505$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.45757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b3…eddcbacked Yes54c501.45$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.521643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes51c501$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.491421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-61.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed No49c489$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.012544%11 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8081…6d62backed No58c479.14$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.262552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes71c479$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.911650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed No56c478$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.681968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No44c468$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.922437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ef…b300backed Yes71c464$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.562050%10 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe794…321cbacked No58c462$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.96955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x591c…390dbacked Yes42c462$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.96650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No39c457$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.73033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked No28c451$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.021947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes41c448$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.321154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+78.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed No59c448$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.322653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ee…9238backed Yes74c438$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.88944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0caf…e065backed No57c430$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.1944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dae…e45abacked No34c426.67$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.742941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc319…6baabacked Yes71c423$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.671154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bf8…c7afbacked No27c417$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.591241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes72c417$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.762751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c98…f4f4backed No47c409.99$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.72147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-17.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed No42c399$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.582948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No15c398.86$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.541,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54ae…57e8backed No45c393$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.85728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-57.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed Yes55c393$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.852630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-27.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaae6…3d05backed No48c382$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.36650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de8…293cbacked Yes52c382$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.361145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1184…1b67backed Yes69c376$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.562352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ece…35e8backed Yes52c375$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7233…f0eabacked Yes51c374$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.26742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda64…9bc5backed Yes53c374$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.781442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d4…e1efbacked No47c374$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.78922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-41.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked No50c372$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1861127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-54%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26ad…990ebacked Yes47c366$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.982642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf666…8842backed No53c366$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.981844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes43c359$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.631457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf351…6284backed Yes71c355$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.95944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc04c…44ffbacked No50c353$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.51643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.