AI · resolved market
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cc6cc1626a504ffec1c64beccb35b7ca601cddcce2bb4f2e5b3c7088acf85f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 2,500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 2,416$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…83bbbacked No | 7c | 2,304$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 8c | 2,271$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.59 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…5c63backed No | 5c | 2,103$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 5c | 1,376$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 6c | 1,361$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked No | 19c | 1,350$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 63c | 1,209$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 33c | 1,178$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.74 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc53d…4346backed No | 1c | 1,062$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 52c | 985$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +123%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 35c | 976$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 71c | 947$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.63 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7381…db26backed No | 7c | 925.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 8c | 925$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 47c | 919.94$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…8c4dbacked No | 3c | 909.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 13c | 900$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 15c | 900$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 23c | 890.8$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 27c | 857.72$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.05 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 78c | 845$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 818.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…5907backed No | 65c | 813$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed No | 20c | 796$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 67c | 790$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…ccfbbacked No | 5c | 763.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 71c | 751$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.79 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 15c | 750$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 742.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 32c | 709$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 29c | 690$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e4f3backed No | 4c | 684.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed No | 47c | 648$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…659fbacked No | 3c | 631.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0981…af93backed No | 5c | 629.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 614.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes | 53c | 603$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.41 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 2c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 10c | 600$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 65c | 598$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 40c | 593$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.68 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 22c | 566$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 17c | 561$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 11c | 537$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 10c | 528$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 61c | 524$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 9c | 503.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 12c | 491.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 20c | 483$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed Yes | 80c | 483$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 6c | 477.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 68c | 477$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed No | 9c | 474$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 3c | 467.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 56c | 461$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 44c | 461$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes | 79c | 453$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 452.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 9c | 450$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +96%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 445.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes | 35c | 440$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes | 53c | 430$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed No | 29c | 423$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked No | 21c | 409$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 34c | 400$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.6 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed No | 48c | 390$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 12c | 384$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked No | 12c | 373$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 68c | 370$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 357.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 29c | 350$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed No | 56c | 346$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…c59fbacked Yes | 44c | 346$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fe…b350backed Yes | 66c | 345.31$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed No | 65c | 344$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.34per pick | 42cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 13c | 330$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 53c | 327$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.69 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked No | 29c | 323$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 71c | 323$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 5c | 322.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed Yes | 52c | 321$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 48c | 321$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked No | 10c | 317$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed Yes | 52c | 305$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 13c | 304$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 67c | 299$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 10c | 290.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed Yes | 69c | 288$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 80c | 283$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 13c | 277$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 13c | 275$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 80c | 263$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 17c | 258.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d3…d54bbacked No | 6c | 258.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa94c…14f0backed No | 4c | 257.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed No | 21c | 256$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk be 2nd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg be 2nd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Steve Ballmer be 2nd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Warren Buffett be 2nd richest person on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.