TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$145,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,588 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c2,500$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No3c2,416$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.942560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce9…83bbbacked No7c2,304$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No8c2,271$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.596010%6 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0101…5c63backed No5c2,103$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c1,750$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No5c1,376$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.622927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-51.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No6c1,361$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.511414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-47.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked No19c1,350$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.5860%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes63c1,209$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.16742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed No33c1,178$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.741662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+40.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc53d…4346backed No1c1,062$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed Yes52c985$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.81560%9 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+123%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes35c976$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.42334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed Yes71c947$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.633345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7381…db26backed No7c925.07$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed No8c925$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed No47c919.94$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.371553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae4…8c4dbacked No3c909.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f0…b3cabacked No13c900$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No15c900$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1234.3%1 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-78.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed No23c890.8$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.461330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No27c857.72$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.0511720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed Yes78c845$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.92045%9 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+49.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No8c818.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.642977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4e3…5907backed No65c813$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.45520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid+5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd569…3037backed No20c796$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.21010%1 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick38cpaid-85.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed Yes67c790$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.71533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe55a…ccfbbacked No5c763.48$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.78425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-67.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes71c751$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.791952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7244…72e4backed No15c750$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.951421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No4c742.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.461867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ae…bb88backed No32c709$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.882138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked No29c690$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.11723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-57.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4df…e4f3backed No4c684.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfa3f…6e13backed No47c648$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddf4…659fbacked No3c631.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0981…af93backed No5c629.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c614.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.212522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes53c603$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.411752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No2c600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed No10c600$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.270%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61ef…b300backed No65c598$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.71844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+78.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbe…f1d5backed No40c593$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.681758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d9d…a002backed No22c566$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.521450%7 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+31%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb593…28eabacked No17c561$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.372441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked No11c537$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.071030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked No10c528$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.81936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6787…8884backed Yes61c524$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.981233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No9c503.91$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3525122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No12c491.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.44593.4%2 W · 57 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed No20c483$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.62343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98cb…a127backed Yes80c483$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No6c477.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.665950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes68c477$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.642665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2795…6811backed No9c474$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.661154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+33.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No3c467.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dd2…ae40backed No56c461$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.161650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…735dbacked Yes44c461$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.161643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes79c453$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.131050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c452.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.633042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked No9c450$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+96%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No5c445.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.212792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes35c440$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2861376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick49cpaid+100.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes53c430$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.11553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6307…0447backed No29c423$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.671010%1 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick42cpaid-47.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0aec…fdafbacked No21c409$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.89825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-59.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Yes34c400$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.64148.8%20 W · 21 L+7.0wins+0.17per pick32cpaid+56.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe07c…1307backed No48c390$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked No12c384$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.081637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked No12c373$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.762123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes68c370$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.41741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No11c357.87$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4840712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed No29c350$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.52245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2e…7c01backed No56c346$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.761225%3 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-36.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x50eb…c59fbacked Yes44c346$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.76666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+124.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4fe…b350backed Yes66c345.31$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2fd…f0b5backed No65c344$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.6128.3%1 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.34per pick42cpaid-84.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x646f…23c3backed No13c330$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.91637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked Yes53c327$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.691662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+31.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked No29c323$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.672045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes71c323$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.671625%4 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-52.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No5c322.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.451754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0956…9aa4backed Yes52c321$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.081266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+59.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed No48c321$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.081741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9464…b4cbbacked No10c317$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.71118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x99ab…edc1backed Yes52c305$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.41540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked No13c304$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.521533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed Yes67c299$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.672441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No10c290.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0620148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed Yes69c288$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.28650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes80c283$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d5…1caebacked No13c277$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.012030%6 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-41.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked No13c275$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.751030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x252c…391abacked Yes80c263$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No17c258.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.033426.5%9 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+72.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0d3…d54bbacked No6c258.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa94c…14f0backed No4c257.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed No21c256$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.761330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.