Weather · resolved market
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1367a607587b34b65eb4c0cca9facdd158e579c5a90c15b7413c47e10ec9b4df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf427…15e1backed Yes | 73c | 2,682$1,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes | 12c | 1,254$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 59c | 1,218$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked Yes | 50c | 1,066$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 14c | 980$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 27c | 943$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 18c | 927$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 38c | 922$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked No | 73c | 911$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked No | 63c | 839$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 14c | 817$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed Yes | 18c | 815$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 37c | 814$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed No | 50c | 787$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 50c | 776$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 50c | 716$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 42c | 683$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 18c | 683$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.06 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 50c | 670$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 27c | 632.07$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 18c | 626$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 62c | 602$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 50c | 601$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 12c | 579$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.52 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 16c | 576$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.36 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 50c | 561$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed No | 50c | 560$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…415ebacked Yes | 27c | 554$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed Yes | 16c | 550$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…7a3fbacked No | 73c | 528$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed Yes | 66c | 523$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 22c | 517.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 21c | 501.37$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.37 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 48c | 495$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 50c | 482$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…dae1backed Yes | 50c | 479$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 14c | 468$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.48 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 64c | 417.47$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 52c | 409$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 50c | 393$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 30c | 383.48$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.56 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed No | 34c | 375$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…99aebacked Yes | 14c | 367$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed No | 50c | 366$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 51c | 362$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 49c | 362$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.38 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed Yes | 50c | 342$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed Yes | 18c | 339$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +191.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 76c | 322$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 24c | 322$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 58c | 310.48$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed Yes | 14c | 291$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed Yes | 50c | 275$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 59c | 271.28$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 12c | 266.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed No | 62c | 257$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 23c | 244.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 67c | 238.88$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed No | 35c | 222.37$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 30c | 213.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.52 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 43c | 212.63$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.24 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 57c | 194$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed Yes | 50c | 186$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked No | 54c | 183.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 34c | 148$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked Yes | 71c | 141.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked No | 65c | 140.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked No | 50c | 139$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 26c | 135.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed No | 73c | 117$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…f419backed No | 36c | 115.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked Yes | 50c | 115$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 30c | 106.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 53c | 103.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 11c | 101.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 100.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed Yes | 50c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 51c | 94.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 63c | 94.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 91.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 53c | 85.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 27c | 83.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed Yes | 50c | 73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 36c | 69.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 59c | 67.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 56c | 63.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed No | 62c | 63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 73c | 58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f5…f796backed No | 74c | 57.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed No | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 56c | 52.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 50c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…7c4bbacked Yes | 56c | 48.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 27c | 45.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?this page
- Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have between 7 and 8 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.