Music · resolved market
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3f2ba2e18670f484256ec451a2c19a80856717762d0067936db66232a5a0485
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc01…d914backed Yes | 2c | 5,242$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb714…a191backed Yes | 1c | 2,700$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 2,112$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked Yes | 9c | 1,757$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,695$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 73c | 1,507$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…d60dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…dce3backed Yes | 2c | 1,119$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…3f1bbacked Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 564.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6101…f4bebacked No | 58c | 538.31$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…1b92backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…e2e9backed Yes | 4c | 485.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 4c | 424.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…d157backed Yes | 4c | 423.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…b561backed Yes | 4c | 381.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…7db7backed Yes | 15c | 378.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…4652backed Yes | 69c | 315.62$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…fa3ebacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…c442backed Yes | 9c | 278.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…8390backed Yes | 68c | 261$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 255.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.43 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked Yes | 79c | 240.05$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…4c5abacked No | 68c | 238.79$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…6cb7backed Yes | 48c | 231.06$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…9f32backed No | 42c | 198.66$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 34c | 185$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e54…0b5ebacked No | 38c | 133.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed Yes | 55c | 128$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…8a55backed No | 35c | 113.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +182.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 113.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 52c | 109$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 35c | 105.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 45c | 103$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265c…5683backed No | 50c | 99.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…537ebacked Yes | 16c | 99.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 95.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…3572backed No | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 27c | 89.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6576…f0abbacked No | 48c | 78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…63c7backed No | 51c | 56.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 28c | 56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…962abacked No | 35c | 49.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…23c6backed Yes | 47c | 49.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb23…8189backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb1…c6f2backed Yes | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed No | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 28.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc1…ea4fbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a6…8e49backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…5389backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2720…b451backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…33ddbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 64c | 19.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e42…cdfabacked Yes | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 74c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?this page
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 19 minutes?No won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 20 minutes?No won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 22 minutes?Yes won
- Will Diplo run the 5k in under 23 minutes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.