World Politics · resolved market
Odds of Newsom Dem Pres Nominee over 40% by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce3aed7abf78143622590bc062525b8509f14d142a0fb6326fad15ace0b0b829
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,804$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed Yes | 21c | 351$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed Yes | 40c | 336$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 4c | 326.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 60c | 308$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 31c | 269.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 68c | 234$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed No | 65c | 224$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +268.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed No | 69c | 211$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 79c | 201$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 13c | 191.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 27c | 181.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed Yes | 35c | 173$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes | 27c | 172$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…d68ebacked No | 73c | 143$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed Yes | 35c | 136$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed No | 73c | 128$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…901abacked No | 73c | 116$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked Yes | 27c | 107$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed No | 78c | 98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 16c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 69c | 91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed No | 65c | 85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked Yes | 27c | 79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed No | 73c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed Yes | 27c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 21c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed Yes | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +74%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed No | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 45.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.