Boxing · resolved market
Will the Logan Paul Break 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe24a045d1cb8368fb53a72eec4212e602f3f904306098216e1823705043a2163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b08…1a9dbacked No | 0c | 12,302$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 36c | 3,166$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…3c98backed Yes | 74c | 2,974$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x967f…0845backed Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 28c | 1,050$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e4…7c1abacked Yes | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed No | 23c | 973$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed No | 23c | 938$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 19cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 77c | 841$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 77c | 667$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 77c | 471$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 77c | 467$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed No | 39c | 438.04$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed No | 23c | 437$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 77c | 414$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb683…af54backed No | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 77c | 374$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 23c | 340$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 17c | 317.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked No | 23c | 308$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 15c | 233.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 191.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed No | 23c | 188$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e4…b433backed Yes | 67c | 109.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…56a5backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…bf06backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced9…fca2backed Yes | 55c | 41.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…68b0backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4be…2424backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4557…bf49backed Yes | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…b3d5backed Yes | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…1da9backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Logan Paul Break 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k?this page
- Will the Logan Paul Break 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?No won
- Will the Logan Paul Break 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.