Boxing · resolved market
Will the Logan Paul Break 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b8f415095998f363e33e10fbe80f4e0ed5ec6428ddc34e826bead752c446aad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b08…1a9dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,971$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…3c98backed Yes | 27c | 6,013$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.38 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb683…af54backed No | 74c | 1,825$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 24c | 1,323$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 660.4$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 27c | 651$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 73c | 595$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe047…e509backed No | 72c | 499.99$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 13c | 491.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 71c | 478.64$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.4 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 71c | 440$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xced9…fca2backed Yes | 12c | 339.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 12c | 233$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 12c | 218$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked No | 73c | 201$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 12c | 181$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…967dbacked Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…b3d5backed Yes | 14c | 109$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e4…b433backed Yes | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…8565backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…68b0backed Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…0764backed Yes | 26c | 49.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Logan Paul Break 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?this page
- Will the Logan Paul Break 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?No won
- Will the Logan Paul Break 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.