Token Launches · resolved market
Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a8cf6f288f7a6213131c7aaa27699f541e9ac7705a1dbaead8797e21fa2118a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8c2…2d1cbacked Yes | 6c | 7,700$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 4,626$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 5c | 4,341$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.79 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 1c | 4,130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…28b8backed Yes | 2c | 2,994$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886a…17b6backed Yes | 1c | 2,947$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,626$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.91 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0d…570abacked Yes | 50c | 1,619$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.7 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2570…f79cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,578$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,295$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 1,275$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,255$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,145$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,050$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +166%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,029$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 1,025$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 41c | 994.18$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.57 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6f…7d62backed No | 79c | 799.99$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 750.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4c…392fbacked No | 69c | 728.59$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc610…5d03backed Yes | 4c | 712.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 695.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 688.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c76…4007backed Yes | 3c | 615.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…37e9backed Yes | 3c | 613.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb89…4c7cbacked No | 66c | 603.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.33 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 449.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 8c | 436$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 59c | 404$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 393.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd7…2601backed Yes | 5c | 373.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4c…d5dbbacked Yes | 4c | 342.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…4369backed Yes | 5c | 320.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ba…cd4abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 60c | 243$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked No | 41c | 221$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 41c | 188$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed No | 40c | 165$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 41c | 147$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 59c | 129$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3769…600fbacked No | 48c | 126.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…ac3dbacked No | 69c | 115.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 43c | 86.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked No | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0e…51e2backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 59c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…0c80backed No | 70c | 57.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 41c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x337f…fc4dbacked No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…14c3backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 41c | 26.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…1074backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…5a2ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 64c | 16.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch?this page
- Infinex FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.