Token Launches · resolved market
Infinex FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a49fe4514191ec2043bdaae8e01e6d6fe30b90cb8c9e6aa7bcb4cd73b0b3fe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437c…f458backed No | 4c | 8,362$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.08 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 1c | 3,750$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 5c | 3,267$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.46 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…12a5backed No | 4c | 2,843$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 3c | 2,406$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,850$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 5c | 1,579$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 5c | 1,545$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 1c | 1,318$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +166%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8043…91c8backed No | 3c | 1,263$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed No | 8c | 1,197$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked No | 6c | 1,150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,057$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 891.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed No | 3c | 826.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b445backed No | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…53c9backed No | 2c | 587.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked No | 2c | 473.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 399.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked No | 5c | 393.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a6…d1bbbacked No | 4c | 278.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 8c | 206.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Infinex FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.