TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$197,819
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$232,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,819 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8c2…2d1cbacked Yes10c10,274$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c1…637ebacked Yes8c9,614$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c4,044$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.051662.4%4 W · 162 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x886a…17b6backed Yes5c3,813$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.83933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes9c2,630$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.417021.4%15 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x894d…6916backed Yes12c2,400$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2983748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x243c…2240backed Yes4c2,388$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.16937.7%26 W · 43 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+87.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c2,337$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.853283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb187…bbe1backed Yes2c2,240$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.471546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x402e…5d12backed Yes9c2,238$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.273740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff44…b678backed Yes2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1161…729abacked Yes14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2802548%12 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c1,884$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.921424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x064f…ff5abacked Yes9c1,840$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.61040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28aa…28b8backed Yes5c1,830$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.544020%8 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes7c1,761$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.465225%13 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-48.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a0d…570abacked Yes42c1,699$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.452832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes3c1,513$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.852917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+166%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2570…f79cbacked Yes9c1,167$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No78c1,122$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.1115041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…5ebcbacked Yes7c1,063$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-68.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e08…7788backed Yes20c1,046$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.743426.5%9 W · 25 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70f6…70e2backed Yes1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e77…c4f3backed Yes61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6101163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x68cd…91ebbacked Yes7c998.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.93425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c988.02$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.667663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e69…d7e4backed Yes3c918.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a9a…467bbacked Yes7c904.87$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.344129.3%12 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-41.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3088…43febacked Yes3c881.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc030…3990backed Yes8c824$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked No51c804.93$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.246940.6%28 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No72c801.42$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.5419543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes7c756.51$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.37754%3 W · 72 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…d43fbacked Yes10c693.31$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.332552%13 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc610…5d03backed Yes8c655.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77a0…8f62backed Yes19c642.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.271520%3 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-58.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2ab…97a4backed Yes8c600$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d0…af08backed Yes2c578.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.413333.3%11 W · 22 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-25.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d45…97f4backed No39c578.16$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.6810948.6%53 W · 56 L+11.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+54%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d40…362bbacked Yes8c555.92$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebae…58e8backed Yes8c549.24$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf584…803cbacked No74c541.01$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.011833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd08…37e9backed Yes5c526.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-56%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf604…36b3backed Yes26c509.08$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.643033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9be8…cc18backed Yes4c500.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1a…0613backed No38c500$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.061090%9 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick59cpaid+79.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3256123%14 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3934…8352backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-74.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x867b…93f5backed Yes8c499.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5173…1abcbacked Yes19c488.19$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.71520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98b2…15a1backed Yes8c488.16$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e2…06fbbacked Yes6c480.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308337.3%31 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b3…1302backed Yes8c472.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x936d…5c15backed Yes7c467.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ec…a0d3backed Yes7c456.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed No55c452.96$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.051625%4 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-44.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d53…7bc0backed Yes8c431.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c6…9508backed Yes15c422.24$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.951915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes9c410.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.92601.7%1 W · 59 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c408.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.052094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3746…f6aabacked Yes4c400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-60.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb67a…07aebacked Yes9c390$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes10c360.7$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.712934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a0…3293backed Yes6c333.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd660…6cd0backed Yes8c330.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8622…cbf8backed Yes8c329.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda32…462ebacked Yes8c324.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…a67ebacked Yes8c324.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0091…0657backed Yes8c324.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x369f…7ba3backed No69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes7c300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a6…2a95backed Yes3c294.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ae2…8c70backed No60c275$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.21944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f3…80e4backed Yes19c259$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.612114.3%3 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa62d…224fbacked No39c254$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1541546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ba…cd4abacked Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid+3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd55d…95f7backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2560…a34fbacked Yes10c237.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.82552%13 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+74.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes16c233.25$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.535127.5%14 W · 37 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-44.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbcd3…f709backed Yes62c230$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.620%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes12c229.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.229942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f9f…2412backed Yes8c229.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No30c222$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.42832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes5c219.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.03728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93f3…5d04backed No39c205.13$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.133548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+53.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa32c…c374backed Yes20c201.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.96147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.26per pick33cpaid-78%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8043…91c8backed Yes8c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53423.5%8 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-53.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeb3f…0d48backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+109.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9d8…ff32backed Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1960…ccf0backed Yes60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2562…af8fbacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bbb…dbf2backed Yes7c199.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a7…6fb8backed Yes9c197$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…884ebacked Yes15c195.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b1…ba32backed Yes9c195$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.55333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x337f…fc4dbacked No33c180$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.6837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed No47c174$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.22580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes19c169$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5846320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xde63…46c2backed Yes23c163.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.351915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.