TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf9d8…ff32

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2560%15 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$98
Will Solana reach $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$132
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$44
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$50
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$341Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$278.59
Will Solana dip to $120 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+75.4%+$43
Will Solana dip to $190 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will Solana dip to $185 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$65
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 1–7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Will Solana dip to $155 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.39
Will Bitcoin dip to $110K in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$56
Will Solana reach $175 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$16.8
Will Bitcoin reach $117K in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$44
Will Solana dip to $140 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Solana reach $160 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$68
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Will Solana reach $180 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$34
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+100%+$50
Will Ethereum dip to $2300 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$32
Will Solana dip to $140 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$24
Will Bitcoin reach $110K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$41
All 25 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+400%+$80
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.16
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$56
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$86
Pump.fun airdrop in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$36
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+43.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick46cpaid+119.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+117.4%+$140.4
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+122.2%+$55
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+148%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+257.1%+$289.38
White Sox vs. Cubsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$532Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$1,301.67
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$279.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.53
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$200.41
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+118%+$164.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$4.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.