Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 1–7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb258abbef84d7cdbea20c62b0e258fe9d899e791b5f2ac3ddd5edb15ccd92a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $260,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $255,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 52c | 25,051$12,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,913.41 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 31c | 20,889$6,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,547.8 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 41c | 13,533$5,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,592.78 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 57c | 11,028$6,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,783.34 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 55c | 11,000$6,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,100 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed No | 42c | 8,224$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,773.94 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 80c | 7,001$5,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 57c | 6,239$3,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,560.87 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 44c | 5,515$2,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,102.52 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd1…2365backed No | 39c | 5,420$2,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,281.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 56c | 4,805$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.6 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 60c | 4,691$2,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,803.31 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 65c | 4,280$2,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.99 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7c1fbacked No | 38c | 3,151$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.53 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,555$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 58c | 2,445$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.16 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5a…34d2backed No | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.14 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 32c | 1,700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 78c | 1,432$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.74 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…2e7ebacked No | 79c | 1,401$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 45c | 1,148$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.22 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 42c | 1,000$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…17bfbacked No | 54c | 919.59$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 56c | 754.93$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.92 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…a0a1backed No | 39c | 698.97$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.84 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 62c | 500$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…498ebacked No | 67c | 437.33$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94cc…4417backed No | 75c | 393.26$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed No | 42c | 384$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.87 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…4c1fbacked No | 78c | 312.49$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4227…1eeabacked No | 52c | 290.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 31c | 234$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.53 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 20c | 215.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…654cbacked No | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 68c | 200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ce…d575backed No | 63c | 153.14$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked No | 27c | 133$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 71c | 130.59$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1a…39fdbacked Yes | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc61…86a2backed No | 56c | 112.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…8978backed Yes | 58c | 104.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…7313backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…ff32backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…fba3backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…dee2backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 34c | 85.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4b…b351backed No | 78c | 66.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b8…acebbacked No | 77c | 50.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc679…4914backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked No | 47c | 41.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…d9e7backed No | 54c | 40.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…5e65backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…cd1ebacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…302bbacked Yes | 54c | 37.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…0c5bbacked Yes | 41c | 34.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…ac69backed No | 76c | 31.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…8a7ebacked No | 61c | 31.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…ecdabacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…7af4backed No | 53c | 28.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03be…f6d9backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ef…16babacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 1–7?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4100 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4300 September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 September 1–7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.