Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4800 September 1–7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9f7e4be5b7ea1e9cd9a35708abed9fa9f0f676a734afef8b6087388143de1fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 16c | 8,270$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.25 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 22c | 6,278$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.43 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 79c | 6,011$4,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.71 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe332…76ffbacked Yes | 0c | 5,063$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 14c | 3,876$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.71 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 25c | 3,667$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.64 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 14c | 2,754$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.79 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 72c | 2,600$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.61 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,931$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…9dfbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…2fe1backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…a0a1backed No | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…490ebacked Yes | 8c | 259.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 76c | 248.82$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20a0…69e0backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…d193backed Yes | 18c | 172.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…1247backed No | 80c | 99.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b8…0a32backed No | 77c | 79.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…ab1bbacked No | 76c | 70.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…33d5backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 September 1–7?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4100 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4300 September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 September 1–7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.