Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4100 September 1–7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf29ae0606dc357909007c5912df6fb2e21b366726af8935abc628c940d0f758d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 34c | 19,936$6,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,701.52 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 33c | 10,078$3,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,350.86 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 32c | 9,838$3,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,104.91 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed No | 63c | 8,796$5,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,259.3 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 19c | 8,305$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.82 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 71c | 7,532$5,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,211.32 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 15c | 6,311$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.08 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 76c | 5,404$4,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.79 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 75c | 5,185$3,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.37 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 65c | 3,763$2,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.35 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,170$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 23c | 2,768$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.67 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f57…f904backed Yes | 4c | 2,595$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +570.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 12c | 2,010$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.18 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 79c | 1,406$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.33 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7c1fbacked No | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 17c | 713.94$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.06 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…b524backed No | 77c | 490$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 55c | 449.93$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.47 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 68c | 441.99$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.23 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 65c | 365.2$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 42c | 211$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4227…1eeabacked No | 77c | 199.25$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x337d…2e8abacked No | 78c | 78.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed No | 79c | 76.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16bf…ba69backed Yes | 35c | 60.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…8a7ebacked No | 74c | 43.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked No | 68c | 42.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc679…4914backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…2146backed No | 61c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4100 September 1–7?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4300 September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 September 1–7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.