Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 1–7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf08c1d010ea95f6e9427821b8e7a662bd1c71975b6d90253b054db84bfab0a05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $306,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $287,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 72c | 43,404$31,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,292.48 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…7b5abacked No | 28c | 24,500$6,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,635 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed Yes | 73c | 16,610$12,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,203.11 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 41c | 16,303$6,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,711.28 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 0c | 12,345$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 10c | 10,028$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.25 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 64c | 8,937$5,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,246.95 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 60c | 8,446$5,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,063.44 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 21c | 6,721$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.98 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7c1fbacked No | 29c | 6,444$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,594.38 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 43c | 5,913$2,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,379.16 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 62c | 5,489$3,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,422.08 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 18c | 4,712$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,842.12 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 65c | 4,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 37c | 3,352$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.81 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f57…f904backed Yes | 3c | 2,986$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +570.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,793$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,310$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 33c | 900$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…a0a1backed No | 55c | 875$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 27c | 792.83$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.26 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked No | 59c | 760$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 706.08$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.34 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…1bafbacked No | 15c | 685.81$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +226.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 9c | 643.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed Yes | 65c | 491.72$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…654cbacked No | 19c | 380$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9911…548dbacked No | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd90…6ce8backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 56c | 290.73$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.08 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked No | 11c | 250$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed No | 12c | 248.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…498ebacked No | 52c | 219.73$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked No | 61c | 192.95$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0df…a5efbacked Yes | 14c | 138.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f4…a427backed No | 12c | 123$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 19c | 120$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe332…76ffbacked Yes | 17c | 112.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…d636backed Yes | 60c | 71.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…2c8ebacked Yes | 25c | 67.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…586ebacked Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…e937backed Yes | 34c | 33.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 1–7?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4100 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4300 September 1–7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 1–7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 September 1–7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.