TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdab4…7b5a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 57 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST2871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $3,700 December 8-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,140Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+27.4%+$860
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 1-7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,460Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+37%+$540
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 November 24-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,480Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+61.3%+$1,519.97
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 November 17-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,037Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+66.9%+$1,362
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$712Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$712
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 10-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$3,450Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+44.9%+$1,550
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 10-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$4,130Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+69.5%+$2,870
Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 November 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$620Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+61.3%+$380
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 6-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$5,323Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+26.4%+$1,406.8
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 October 6-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$608Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$342
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 September 29-October 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$8,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,200
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 September 29-October 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$8,910Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,910
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 September 29-October 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$16,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$16,499.99
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$195
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$250
Will Solana reach $260 September 8–14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$925Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$925
Will Ethereum reach $4800 September 8–14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11,850Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$3,150
Will Ethereum reach $4700 September 8–14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$19,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$19,700
Will Ethereum reach $4600 September 8–14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14,434Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$14,434.31
Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 8–14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$7,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,100
Will Ethereum reach $4600 September 1–7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$17,603Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+70.5%+$12,402.15
Will Ethereum reach $4700 September 1–7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$19,714Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+69.9%+$13,786
Solana reach 230 September 1–7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,850Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$1,150
Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 1–7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$6,865Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+256.9%+$17,635
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15,758Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+66.8%+$10,530.16
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hawks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$99
Pistons vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$68
Trail Blazers vs. Wizardsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$80
All 3 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,375Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,375.12
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,939Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28.5%+$553.41
All 2 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$102.49
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.