Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 November 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27117a43334644f1c7d4395cfc4a6026bda8026f2b0b5dd6a717f82e71306660
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $249,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $270,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 58c | 19,286$11,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,102.44 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 22c | 8,000$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,239.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 36c | 6,155$2,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,948.38 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 80c | 5,140$4,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,101.09 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…6e0fbacked Yes | 37c | 4,541$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,851.29 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcb07…13b0backed Yes | 79c | 4,522$3,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 41c | 3,876$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.95 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…74ddbacked Yes | 19c | 3,198$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,598.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 44c | 3,003$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.51 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…a78fbacked Yes | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 72c | 2,260$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.45 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…7b5abacked Yes | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 11c | 1,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 12c | 861.54$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.54 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e8…d6c3backed Yes | 22c | 792.77$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.36 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 17c | 652.94$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.94 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…19d8backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 42c | 568.98$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.21 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 28c | 522.59$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.61 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…c67ebacked Yes | 66c | 500$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 436.21$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 39c | 394.15$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.13 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 20c | 243.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…c66fbacked Yes | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 53c | 180.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…bcb3backed Yes | 64c | 167.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02b…f2c8backed Yes | 65c | 163.43$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…9a02backed Yes | 63c | 161.77$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 48c | 157$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 126$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 14c | 113$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.18 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…8d07backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Yes | 51c | 83.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…e43fbacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 35c | 64.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 20c | 50.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b7…169bbacked Yes | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffce…40e0backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 November 10-16?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.