Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd56a79b3ccb9236fb4bcb7bb0db57195cdaf270cba70cd5e2b5c7bca71bb476
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $455,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $441,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $455,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 22c | 17,001$3,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,685.11 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…c0eebacked No | 70c | 11,072$7,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,352.49 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed Yes | 37c | 9,000$3,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,301 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 5c | 8,908$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.87 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 30c | 7,842$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.77 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,550$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.29 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb07…13b0backed Yes | 65c | 6,192$4,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,024.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 30c | 6,174$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.32 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8155…cf1dbacked No | 66c | 6,172$4,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,071.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…19d8backed Yes | 7c | 4,286$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 15c | 3,985$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.97 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 6c | 3,500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…fc51backed Yes | 61c | 3,333$2,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…6e0fbacked No | 74c | 3,262$2,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.25 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 11c | 3,168$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…2a5fbacked Yes | 48c | 3,099$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes | 65c | 3,000$1,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae8…03cdbacked Yes | 34c | 2,933$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87e…264cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,508$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 6c | 2,500$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.67 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 2,021$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.74 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…7b5abacked Yes | 36c | 2,000$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…74ddbacked Yes | 12c | 1,417$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…f264backed Yes | 50c | 1,409$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…0888backed No | 76c | 842.08$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 25c | 828.91$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.18 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 44c | 818.95$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.46 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0127…1230backed Yes | 32c | 773.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 9c | 715.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 63c | 627.85$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.47 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…0091backed Yes | 47c | 625.79$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5549…ad60backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…9bf6backed No | 76c | 527.7$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 77c | 499.29$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 70c | 470$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.75 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…e746backed Yes | 55c | 450.73$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 24c | 420.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 223.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 43c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d5…1300backed No | 76c | 192.41$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…8d07backed Yes | 36c | 138.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…9a02backed Yes | 25c | 121.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 22c | 110.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…0a00backed Yes | 35c | 98.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 76c | 86.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x12b7…e13abacked No | 70c | 74.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…b55ebacked No | 47c | 70.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…0415backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 16c | 63.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Yes | 37c | 57.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…6faebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae6…5933backed Yes | 29c | 41.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d25…408abacked No | 71c | 38.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9572…9393backed No | 73c | 34.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f5…f23abacked Yes | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…bb15backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x618f…a6b7backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 10-16?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.