Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa599edc3856e1b213d08d5cca3284ce4e470b996636bc699644af60969bd0466
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $294,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $291,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 14c | 16,081$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,182.65 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb0…afcebacked Yes | 14c | 8,888$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 9c | 6,635$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.53 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…6cc0backed Yes | 4c | 6,521$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.23 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 3c | 5,560$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.16 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…f7aabacked Yes | 24c | 5,102$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 2c | 4,924$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 6c | 4,463$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 6c | 4,007$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed Yes | 26c | 2,824$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 10c | 2,787$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.81 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 2,568$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.65 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 6c | 2,196$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.73 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,056$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…6951backed Yes | 17c | 1,069$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +160.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…c783backed Yes | 12c | 800$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…885ebacked Yes | 9c | 667.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…7382backed Yes | 4c | 550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 20c | 544.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2beb…0a24backed Yes | 28c | 501.98$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 5c | 497.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 431.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 4c | 351.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e8…d6c3backed Yes | 18c | 299.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 20c | 292.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked Yes | 22c | 219$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Yes | 30c | 195.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…bb15backed Yes | 13c | 173$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +227.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…961fbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…0872backed No | 72c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e4…7413backed No | 79c | 62.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 10-16?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.