Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb256456855e979c2661afbe1886b3dc6a094c0eee08c60cf17363f97380f35f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a21…fec3backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x421d…b960backed Yes | 51c | 6,664$3,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,371.86 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -5.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,314$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…7b5abacked No | 69c | 5,000$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 35c | 3,845$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.56 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 21c | 3,810$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.99 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 2c | 2,968$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 3c | 2,395$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1764…cf64backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b50…77a2backed Yes | 22c | 1,944$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.88 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 61c | 1,821$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 28c | 1,514$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.01 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…6e0fbacked No | 69c | 1,495$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.29 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…2a78backed Yes | 13c | 1,177$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 56c | 1,032$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.5 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe636…1fa4backed Yes | 13c | 958.8$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…d0a8backed Yes | 59c | 921.15$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3293…52bcbacked Yes | 13c | 864.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 30c | 833.33$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 9c | 280$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f83…9aacbacked Yes | 15c | 166.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +118%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8c…ddecbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e32…920cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…c5bcbacked Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x267b…d065backed No | 58c | 31.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed No | 77c | 25.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 10-16?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.