Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 November 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe5bb322c4d600272f9481bc7b80cc6d6f8ba0da032ea364c124eca477f06a48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafb7…496abacked No | 0c | 28,803$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 56c | 13,036$7,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,288.55 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfc…f414backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 16c | 7,494$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,295.25 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 26c | 7,146$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,256.3 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 5,904$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 43c | 5,000$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,857.23 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 13c | 3,589$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,122.27 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 14c | 1,962$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.42 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…c67ebacked Yes | 75c | 1,000$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…6e0fbacked Yes | 58c | 884.98$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.48 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 78c | 386$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 70c | 96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f83…9aacbacked Yes | 26c | 95.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +118%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d2…2bbebacked Yes | 61c | 95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…dc0dbacked No | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 74cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Yes | 80c | 16.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 November 10-16?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.