Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 November 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b916c3992ba7b52030c16914675657bcaa14bda8144a0fd495ab14ac98cf61f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 36c | 12,838$4,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,641.45 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 62c | 9,715$6,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,661.1 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 45c | 7,034$3,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,868.35 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae8…03cdbacked Yes | 51c | 3,100$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 15c | 2,154$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.07 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 49c | 1,416$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.75 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…6e0fbacked No | 44c | 1,202$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.91 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 35c | 500$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…5743backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b50…b0eebacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…9179backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 48c | 157.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8c…ddecbacked No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…8d07backed Yes | 54c | 92.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x267b…d065backed Yes | 33c | 90.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf093…ad32backed No | 50c | 69.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a66…5b1bbacked No | 58c | 65.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…80adbacked Yes | 52c | 55.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…663ebacked Yes | 50c | 52.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712a…53d2backed Yes | 54c | 49.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eff…ec3abacked No | 53c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8a…1d35backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…266dbacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 45c | 36.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8077…110fbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…37c5backed No | 53c | 31.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…3fdfbacked No | 44c | 25.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…6204backed No | 75c | 14.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 November 10-16?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.