Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6637ea2b3fe9dcc0c2bf92efd898d678b374b4a7de2e3b824b5d3aea47911592
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $359,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $335,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $359,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55b9…a994backed Yes | 0c | 90,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 74c | 24,435$18,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,283.21 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fbf6backed Yes | 3c | 23,931$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 32c | 8,765$2,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,804.8 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd29…19acbacked No | 65c | 7,681$5,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 24c | 7,119$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.67 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x421d…b960backed Yes | 71c | 7,088$5,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,015.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -5.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 3c | 6,028$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.81 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 60c | 4,469$2,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,665 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8c…ddecbacked Yes | 5c | 4,379$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…6e0fbacked No | 71c | 4,344$3,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.67 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,136$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…ba94backed Yes | 11c | 3,170$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 2c | 3,100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…d824backed Yes | 3c | 3,072$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2beb…0a24backed Yes | 2c | 2,038$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 1c | 1,672$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 2c | 1,558$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d8…63debacked Yes | 2c | 1,340$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 4c | 1,163$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,116$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.72 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x560b…85d7backed Yes | 1c | 1,005$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 39c | 1,001$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.75 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1764…cf64backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 71c | 983.6$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.94 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…6ca9backed Yes | 2c | 505.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9645…6c49backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes | 36c | 352.61$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.94 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 69c | 314.61$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…4cc6backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…60fabacked No | 67c | 299.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…5743backed No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 33c | 251$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…58e8backed Yes | 15c | 242$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x267b…d065backed No | 33c | 224.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…298dbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 68c | 182.54$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c1…8f46backed Yes | 14c | 157.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f8…2282backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc803…b63dbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fa…c810backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6b…e4bebacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 45c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076b…5346backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…3fdbbacked Yes | 38c | 121.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 111$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf90f…8296backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…f52cbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…c5bcbacked Yes | 70c | 91.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4be9backed Yes | 37c | 55.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 77c | 53.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…9a02backed No | 62c | 51.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf8…69abbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -5.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Yes | 24c | 49.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…266dbacked No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe994…331bbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c08…9d34backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…67a4backed No | 70c | 34.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7366…91dabacked No | 70c | 32.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226f…3c94backed No | 67c | 32.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e21…c002backed Yes | 34c | 31.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…0fe5backed Yes | 35c | 31.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…6392backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…38e5backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…ac93backed No | 67c | 26.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…a1e1backed No | 67c | 21.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5371…2cf5backed Yes | 53c | 20.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa450…8515backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 10-16?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 November 10-16?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.