Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 November 24-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x036d2292adb18a3704260c4f276df4639e66bd926c358fc6924435ee214ac7a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $364,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $360,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $364,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 16c | 43,474$6,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,992.44 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 6c | 30,927$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.87 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 76c | 13,400$10,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,152.07 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 12,289$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 28c | 10,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb350…ef37backed Yes | 19c | 4,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 12c | 4,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…7b5abacked No | 62c | 4,000$2,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.97 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…6e0fbacked No | 76c | 3,455$2,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.83 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 23c | 2,828$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.28 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 7c | 2,639$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.67 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 8c | 2,605$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.91 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52e8…c4cdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 67c | 1,500$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…6396backed No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 14c | 1,136$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.82 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…3316backed Yes | 15c | 1,021$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcb…5731backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0921…263ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…18a3backed Yes | 22c | 900$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 5c | 747.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…9ff4backed Yes | 35c | 714.29$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 78c | 700$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 44c | 610$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.4 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…df44backed No | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 6c | 561.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91c…3830backed No | 77c | 519.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe045…c149backed Yes | 4c | 502.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1202…6fe7backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…8c26backed Yes | 21c | 500$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…b686backed Yes | 28c | 499.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 78c | 400$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 20c | 375.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 16c | 340$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d24…1f77backed Yes | 18c | 337.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…c16fbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5d…d518backed Yes | 4c | 307.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1d…069dbacked No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…57b3backed Yes | 20c | 299.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49d…c3dbbacked Yes | 35c | 294.58$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 20c | 222$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 75c | 221.88$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 70c | 210.52$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 20c | 180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…298dbacked Yes | 37c | 168.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…6ce1backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd449…43e5backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…ea69backed No | 67c | 107.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed No | 66c | 106.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…52a5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…da44backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…9153backed No | 75c | 86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…1fc9backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdc…736dbacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…cfb1backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Yes | 32c | 53.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8a…e72abacked No | 73c | 37.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf431…3d82backed Yes | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…6b64backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…c37ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 November 24-30?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 November 24-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.