Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 November 24-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd31b16dcc7453411e50fcf04a04710f53c46a1871ed0e775f068187772f260d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 4c | 21,922$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.17 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 13,072$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb07…13b0backed Yes | 35c | 10,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…b2b3backed Yes | 8c | 8,080$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 2c | 5,156$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,961$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.42 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…6e0fbacked No | 76c | 2,542$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.63 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…997abacked No | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 78c | 1,289$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.87 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 63c | 1,159$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.69 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…305bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf509…67b9backed No | 74c | 999.99$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 726.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…c16fbacked Yes | 3c | 638.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…73b4backed No | 73c | 465.95$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 13c | 437.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…4fe7backed Yes | 7c | 340.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed No | 78c | 179.49$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7e…71cbbacked Yes | 31c | 158$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 72c | 131.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb4…f28cbacked Yes | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…ab01backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aba…a641backed No | 76c | 68.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e2…4688backed No | 75c | 64.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…24c3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf431…3d82backed Yes | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…fbe9backed Yes | 41c | 29.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b2…6999backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 November 24-30?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 November 24-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.