Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 November 24-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9063544fdc4902a4362a37300e00cf0571fb9ac8071aee1d889089ca3f1f73ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 1c | 35,095$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.7 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 14c | 10,093$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,473$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 6c | 4,996$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.26 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…18a3backed Yes | 10c | 3,922$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbda…6e2cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa92c…b4d6backed Yes | 7c | 2,157$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 14c | 1,020$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.78 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.35 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 7c | 962.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…3316backed Yes | 6c | 849.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59e…17d7backed Yes | 7c | 764.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…9ff4backed Yes | 16c | 567.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 16c | 431.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…57b3backed Yes | 17c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…da44backed Yes | 14c | 400$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 20c | 343$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…8c26backed Yes | 12c | 287$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…84e6backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 74c | 194.21$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd449…43e5backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d67…1b53backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 November 24-30?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 November 24-30?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 November 24-30?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 November 24-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.