TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum reach $3,400 November 24-30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,630

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,729 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3822…b720backed Yes5c11,450$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.478634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb350…ef37backed Yes5c3,739$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa92c…b4d6backed Yes3c3,469$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes7c3,293$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.4347721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,803$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.721,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes9c2,366$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.2287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f5…18a3backed Yes6c1,697$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0921…263ebacked Yes5c1,613$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.09368.3%3 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb59e…17d7backed Yes4c1,306$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x884d…1da6backed Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402321.7%5 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+90.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7cc…b660backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes5c999.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508411.9%10 W · 74 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick4cpaid+599.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes3c748.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.821431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad96…da44backed Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.81520%3 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde6…6ce1backed Yes4c337.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b00…7b4fbacked Yes7c204.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…7da1backed Yes7c164.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.18190%0 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.