Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 November 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd72c25306ab71c23b7cfcc94c9d8e58102077ed14bdc2b03ccfd6de1e35b9571
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 11,930$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…6e0fbacked No | 66c | 8,716$5,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,953.57 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 28c | 7,662$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130.36 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 42c | 7,596$3,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,212.56 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa00…5340backed Yes | 4c | 4,439$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 58c | 3,618$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.96 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…7b5abacked No | 60c | 3,399$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 2c | 2,503$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 2c | 2,401$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 38c | 2,338$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.73 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,646$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.73 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a40…6d1bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed Yes | 9c | 1,124$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 71c | 1,086$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.92 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb07…13b0backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 32c | 831$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.59 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 44c | 700$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 16c | 582.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…c734backed Yes | 4c | 578.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Yes | 46c | 419.27$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.7 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…2868backed Yes | 17c | 400$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…451dbacked Yes | 52c | 383.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…3ad5backed Yes | 31c | 319.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Yes | 42c | 240$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 33cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c974backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b02…c33dbacked Yes | 57c | 200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 76c | 190$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 64c | 160$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2678…94dbbacked Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 58c | 108.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…f52cbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…d370backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 33c | 54.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7302…61cdbacked No | 63c | 42.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…c7cebacked Yes | 61c | 19.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16c…9100backed No | 63c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 November 17-23?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.