Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fd0f36defd52ed09f7dc1505be65acc67bd40fb50d4cb20950c88b0086c9495
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2de7…329dbacked Yes | 1c | 25,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 18c | 20,530$3,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,748.93 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 4c | 10,935$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.31 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,090$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…c771backed No | 75c | 6,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…6e0fbacked Yes | 28c | 5,974$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.07 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 35c | 5,737$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.48 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b8…f3e5backed No | 69c | 4,329$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 12c | 3,821$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.24 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Yes | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 61c | 2,811$1,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.19 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked No | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,820$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.76 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…90c6backed Yes | 6c | 1,407$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…d824backed Yes | 17c | 1,337$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 74c | 1,165$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.94 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…9466backed Yes | 5c | 1,111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc13…9c34backed Yes | 4c | 807.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…c596backed No | 78c | 509.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…e3d7backed Yes | 9c | 506.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…40d0backed Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 25c | 433$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.16 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 55c | 387.29$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.37 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…c9e2backed Yes | 5c | 387.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00d…b5a9backed No | 73c | 366.79$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 10c | 337.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…5743backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 24c | 300$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 12c | 282.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 23c | 275$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 9c | 267.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…4102backed Yes | 19c | 261.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb9…1f8fbacked Yes | 27c | 259.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b02…c33dbacked Yes | 34c | 155.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 115$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…6718backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfafb…27eabacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…a7ddbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…2da5backed No | 43c | 70.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…54e0backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 40c | 45.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628c…c651backed Yes | 49c | 43.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e6…90febacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa500…9528backed No | 69c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 17-23?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.