Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 November 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b08b13e084565ae8af3f120cdd0728a29a58fed7089ee0f191190f7b55bbc00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 9c | 9,162$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.5 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 20c | 7,692$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.23 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…b2b3backed Yes | 40c | 7,600$3,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,023 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc577…1f0bbacked Yes | 7c | 7,425$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 9c | 6,010$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.58 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 33c | 5,613$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.76 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…fb90backed Yes | 10c | 5,600$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac9…ca59backed Yes | 11c | 5,114$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.5 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes | 8c | 4,791$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.18 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,657$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.26 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…7c54backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eef…9522backed Yes | 11c | 1,981$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc13…9c34backed Yes | 2c | 1,926$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 11c | 1,600$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…7382backed Yes | 6c | 1,537$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…1c6fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,208$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.2 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4547…be86backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ba…0918backed Yes | 10c | 990.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…ca9fbacked Yes | 4c | 982.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 13c | 952.8$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.03 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 10c | 879.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…9b34backed Yes | 2c | 829.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…b4f4backed Yes | 11c | 745.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7f…2f05backed Yes | 4c | 701.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…effebacked Yes | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…4102backed Yes | 7c | 666.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…b3dcbacked Yes | 9c | 618.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8628…8b64backed Yes | 8c | 614.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 21c | 560.69$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6877…de8abacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…a060backed Yes | 9c | 459.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 6c | 380$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243a…a479backed Yes | 11c | 353.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…7d3bbacked Yes | 7c | 353$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…89b4backed Yes | 11c | 330.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a4…0e24backed Yes | 11c | 303.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc45b…edb1backed Yes | 8c | 298.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…6cd1backed Yes | 9c | 294.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0f…c678backed Yes | 8c | 270$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…ea74backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ec…c51cbacked Yes | 8c | 243.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 27c | 226$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…58b0backed Yes | 9c | 224.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 212.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…a7ddbacked Yes | 9c | 210.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…5d14backed Yes | 7c | 210.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…be42backed Yes | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +359.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44bb…3842backed Yes | 9c | 202.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 7c | 200.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78e6…90febacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f2…a4cebacked Yes | 11c | 175.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…06dabacked Yes | 11c | 161.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…205abacked Yes | 10c | 156.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…cdbabacked Yes | 8c | 145.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b02…c33dbacked Yes | 17c | 143$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e7…132bbacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…5b31backed Yes | 10c | 124.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…2da5backed No | 68c | 103.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…87d7backed Yes | 12c | 94.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628c…c651backed Yes | 23c | 80.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc466…5c65backed No | 64c | 27.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…6608backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 November 17-23?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.