Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 November 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5935175370ff0c88d857ff9a8b5f96c5dc3f850440edd68d3e8029aec176d9ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb85e…6e0fbacked No | 73c | 10,210$7,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,722.9 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 29c | 6,325$1,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.69 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 15c | 6,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,982$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 56c | 1,984$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 67c | 1,080$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.8 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 31c | 1,008$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.98 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 48c | 888.72$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.68 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8c…ddecbacked Yes | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…3ad5backed Yes | 30c | 776.86$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.56 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 64c | 766$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…451dbacked Yes | 49c | 410.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7302…61cdbacked No | 73c | 348.01$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a66…5b1bbacked Yes | 7c | 233.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 59c | 217.62$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…ab01backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 41c | 170.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Yes | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…7ff5backed No | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 71c | 124.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…f52cbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…661fbacked Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a94…89d7backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…4cf4backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b1…f012backed Yes | 56c | 53.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…131ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…0a30backed Yes | 30c | 49.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e19…e721backed Yes | 38c | 44.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf8…69abbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -5.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x380a…4741backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.33per pick | 42cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5acc…89e0backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 November 17-23?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.