Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d1bc9b2a67668306fb2381a0756b5e15281f53aaf631f40732177cb82a0ef39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 35c | 4,714$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.78 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 59c | 4,058$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.54 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 61c | 4,008$2,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.19 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…e746backed Yes | 68c | 3,620$2,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 47c | 2,498$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.76 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 23c | 2,276$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.78 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…6e0fbacked Yes | 54c | 1,054$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.87 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 59c | 240$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 176$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d7…cf4bbacked Yes | 71c | 78.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…5c4abacked Yes | 43c | 53.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…4c66backed No | 59c | 41.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…428abacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd707…d83dbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 17-23?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 November 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 November 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.