Token Launches · resolved market
Will Infrared launch a token by December 31 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d6886a554874ec350682f3ef968d8776942ad5bf37b5f0d53c12498a68c6926
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed No | 7c | 873$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked No | 8c | 849$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed No | 11c | 642$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed No | 10c | 528$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed No | 11c | 483$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9190…294dbacked No | 10c | 459$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…94d7backed No | 9c | 321$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…7b5abacked No | 8c | 240$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed No | 7c | 207$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed No | 9c | 196$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked No | 11c | 184$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed No | 12c | 168.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 12c | 140.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed No | 11c | 123$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 114$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Infrared launch a token by December 31 2026?this page
- Will Infrared launch a token by December 31 2025?Yes won
- Will Infrared launch a token by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will Infrared launch a token by March 31 2026?Yes won
- Will Infrared launch a token by September 30 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.