Token Launches · resolved market
Will Infrared launch a token by March 31 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee347e03225dd3de8c20435db8a7f1de946dc1001e01ca2433c40405e9b5b8e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed No | 24c | 695.2$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.98 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…b49fbacked No | 22c | 556.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed No | 22c | 511.45$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked No | 24c | 503.28$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…71b7backed No | 27c | 450.4$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 408.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed No | 23c | 398.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked No | 22c | 381.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46fa…9a8cbacked No | 21c | 370.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed No | 15c | 359.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed No | 35c | 318$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 65c | 314$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 66c | 244$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed Yes | 65c | 218$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…5eb6backed No | 9c | 216.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked No | 17c | 192.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 35c | 192$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 34c | 186$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 27c | 145$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 65c | 118$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…e7d0backed Yes | 63c | 110.14$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked No | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed No | 34c | 82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked No | 34c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…421bbacked No | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -71%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…513ebacked Yes | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…77d6backed Yes | 78c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Infrared launch a token by March 31 2026?this page
- Will Infrared launch a token by December 31 2025?Yes won
- Will Infrared launch a token by December 31 2026?Yes won
- Will Infrared launch a token by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will Infrared launch a token by September 30 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.