TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Infrared launch a token by December 31 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,733 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7024…4c4cbacked No0c9,200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa285…6da0backed Yes75c4,111$3,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.123100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b01…5c12backed Yes75c4,007$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbaf…2833backed No15c3,976$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.082512%3 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No24c2,323$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.789747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc091…e7d0backed Yes45c2,300$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.961190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick63cpaid+64%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x129b…24c4backed Yes54c2,266$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.835851.7%30 W · 28 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No47c2,019$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.546031.7%19 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab0…1b0bbacked No7c1,526$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…77d6backed Yes39c1,436$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.014440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd063…5ccdbacked No48c1,282$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.123132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c09…93f1backed Yes75c1,256$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No13c1,224$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.867663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No23c1,183$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.1225422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No5c1,029$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.534721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe353…a4e3backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc48e…7708backed No35c914.03$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.81922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed No22c910.69$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.84520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25be…b4abbacked Yes79c907.68$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb095…8184backed Yes63c808.32$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No25c777$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.82377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x405f…4940backed No3c750$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.91816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+93.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ee…4469backed Yes70c716.87$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes73c679.16$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4910756.1%60 W · 47 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x26d1…05eebacked No34c664.87$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.862128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+108.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ef5…5408backed No13c641.73$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.17933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a60…2a67backed No62c631.24$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.953330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34b7…36e8backed No17c607.65$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.81616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+70.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x186d…01e0backed No19c601.13$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1148939.3%35 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fca…7033backed No6c600$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed No11c570$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.461643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+118.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x126f…7137backed Yes80c543.37$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.254946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No12c536.41$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6519336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ec…a3adbacked No15c504.35$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.51723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+57.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dcb…53b4backed No16c479$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No29c459.79$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.5417859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a12…4833backed No32c452.97$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-70.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e7…4b5abacked No21c400$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked Yes41c399.61$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.59922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No23c379.48$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6620422.1%45 W · 159 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f8f…1ee8backed Yes39c371.65$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.661154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+48.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c65…3e45backed No36c356.24$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.056735.8%24 W · 43 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed No7c355$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.08520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick3cpaid+698.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbed6…b4a2backed No8c354.95$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad1…b7c0backed No59c339.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8032…1b20backed No62c325$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6e…b5bcbacked No62c323.73$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-29.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdea…a777backed No20c309.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.32524%6 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-61.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes44c287.01$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.3433329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fd6…ff27backed No32c264.62$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86110%0 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x938e…0459backed No59c254.95$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154938.8%19 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca5a…245bbacked No40c248.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0fa…fe94backed No25c247.35$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.73825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec4…fa49backed No37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-72.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe9c7…147abacked Yes65c199.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47ea…6663backed Yes57c199.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+34.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b7…d5a7backed No54c184.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf56…6f8ebacked No33c181.73$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.641414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed No48c177.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8511942%50 W · 69 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5240…f84ebacked No57c173.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc824…df08backed No35c173.17$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.741921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa358…1b02backed No59c170.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7799…ebd7backed No59c170.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef4c…d288backed No59c170.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x282d…10febacked No59c169.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-69.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9796…e75fbacked No61c165.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca8…87ffbacked No61c163.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b6…f80abacked No62c162.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-45%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb89c…b71dbacked No62c162.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f09…5cd0backed No47c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes61c149.64$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.44273.8%31 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf52…3597backed Yes67c147.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.01450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58b…ffb4backed No21c142$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.88933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+55.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b7b…f6ffbacked No35c141.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No17c139.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4335712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x404a…9446backed No20c137.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f57…a4c0backed No32c129.54$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82b5…1542backed No33c120.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-54.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde30…1ec7backed No42c120.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed No56c115$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0247…bb07backed No10c114.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-52.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a1…6511backed No45c111.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4964…4b77backed No48c104.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes71c104$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-79.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3716740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb65e…3e11backed No37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…7afabacked No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes44c94$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.64475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+46.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb2…58dcbacked No56c88.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes53c85.75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.735461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc3c…e38bbacked No45c85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.663066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+25.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5daf…89e2backed No63c79.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8732…7a34backed No64c77.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3024…0c79backed Yes44c77$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.12475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick49cpaid+152.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed No29c75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.75837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5338…01c9backed Yes55c73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes50c72.97$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.188643%37 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x589d…38a6backed No58c69.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.