Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4600 September 8–14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e17ad169c9a03cc81196fb7ef8b6cd546c566612e458d3cca864721a84e9951
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 45c | 22,827$10,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,593.3 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…7b5abacked No | 69c | 21,053$14,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,434.31 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes | 52c | 16,247$8,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,832.63 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 50c | 4,303$2,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.58 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…0b58backed No | 49c | 4,050$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967.93 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 44c | 3,977$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,223.26 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c13…8834backed No | 1c | 3,119$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefe…d7d4backed No | 35c | 2,872$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed No | 47c | 2,677$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.65 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…a0a1backed No | 62c | 2,170$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.4 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 31c | 2,058$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.07 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 69c | 1,499$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.32 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Yes | 66c | 1,345$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.45 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f6…e905backed No | 29c | 1,276$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 37c | 1,064$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.65 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 62c | 1,004$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.8 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…95ffbacked No | 69c | 724.95$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…3545backed Yes | 62c | 567.77$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.07 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 62c | 505$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.5 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…ae10backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +115%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 57c | 450$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 55c | 449.95$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.57 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 44c | 415$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.39 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc92…7505backed No | 68c | 317$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 21c | 260$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…53a3backed Yes | 77c | 176.62$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…8dc9backed Yes | 64c | 113.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked No | 62c | 109.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…ef3ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Yes | 68c | 84.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked Yes | 36c | 82.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…07d1backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…3485backed No | 56c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…28e9backed No | 63c | 61.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e89…45f2backed Yes | 44c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…4330backed Yes | 44c | 59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2e…2ce0backed Yes | 44c | 59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524a…4009backed No | 56c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…c33ebacked No | 56c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…337ebacked No | 56c | 57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…2280backed Yes | 44c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc702…0541backed No | 56c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5c9fbacked Yes | 44c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…0241backed Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x719c…6788backed No | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2485…0cb2backed Yes | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d87…4e60backed No | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…e136backed No | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…b530backed Yes | 44c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3f…a7eebacked No | 56c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc9…1b56backed No | 48c | 41.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…c771backed Yes | 44c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…9656backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…d276backed No | 56c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa875…1cecbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…2c8ebacked Yes | 67c | 17.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4600…d896backed Yes | 70c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 September 8–14?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3700 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3900 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4100 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.