Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 September 8–14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5959f6a89fea23ecde1467b88846db17636c7c209a719cb337eb6a43a81ca1dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 71c | 10,768$7,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,123.3 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 33c | 9,424$3,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,063.12 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 25c | 4,928$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.62 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 7c | 4,469$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 67c | 1,824$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.88 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 25c | 1,532$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.38 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7c1fbacked No | 74c | 852.46$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.46 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 756$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 72c | 628.35$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.35 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed No | 68c | 500$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c9…cd97backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed No | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 7c | 331$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 66c | 199.55$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…380abacked No | 72c | 149.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked Yes | 33c | 53.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be9…c7cdbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…5fd2backed No | 77c | 25.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…7af4backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 September 8–14?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3700 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3900 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4100 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.