Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4900 September 8–14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f668e72cd6535fdc0ddfb01c6cb8db76ae964c571324e714bacccb0d4f898c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 1c | 23,432$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.02 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 22c | 9,910$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.02 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 78c | 8,713$6,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.31 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Yes | 21c | 4,000$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 11c | 3,949$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.36 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…689cbacked Yes | 15c | 3,091$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 76c | 2,906$2,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.43 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 79c | 2,112$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.53 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc61…86a2backed Yes | 22c | 900.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Yes | 4c | 666.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…a0a1backed No | 80c | 650$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 623.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ed…5145backed Yes | 6c | 241.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0921…263ebacked Yes | 10c | 107.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 20c | 100.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 80c | 60.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +7.9wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ce…d575backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 September 8–14?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3700 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3900 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4100 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.