Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4100 September 8–14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2f63bc529af8ae1efd11c4dbca038e3d90f3186a3e7ffef3cf3e8c671d84e11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 40c | 11,124$4,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,435.14 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 59c | 6,795$4,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,763.18 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed Yes | 41c | 6,000$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,474 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 54c | 2,469$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.52 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 51c | 2,095$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.44 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…3db1backed No | 58c | 1,767$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 75c | 1,734$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.77 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 35c | 1,242$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.38 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…a0a1backed No | 65c | 750$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 534.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed Yes | 27c | 414.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7c1fbacked No | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…9aa1backed No | 53c | 283.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4227…1eeabacked No | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc61…86a2backed No | 50c | 218.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 45c | 184.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked No | 63c | 161.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked Yes | 45c | 66.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…9684backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -7.7wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f844backed No | 62c | 25.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…118ebacked No | 61c | 17.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4100 September 8–14?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3700 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3900 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.