Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 8–14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x387078da8ade68de806839b8766dc8c87e1161c9bc6bd8d7d0d4917753488bfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdab4…7b5abacked No | 47c | 15,000$7,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,100 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes | 67c | 8,899$6,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,897.68 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed Yes | 58c | 8,808$5,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,709.03 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed No | 42c | 7,463$3,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,103.51 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 56c | 7,358$4,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,220.78 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 62c | 5,801$3,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,227.66 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 18c | 4,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 63c | 3,564$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.22 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 64c | 3,375$2,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.65 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaefe…d7d4backed No | 44c | 3,193$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.38 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 36c | 3,033$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.24 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5763…1c22backed Yes | 77c | 3,000$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 66c | 2,795$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.6 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…a0a1backed No | 41c | 1,825$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.4 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9911…548dbacked No | 28c | 1,778$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked No | 26c | 1,162$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 74c | 750$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked No | 30c | 450$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 28c | 410$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.43 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…9dcabacked Yes | 71c | 291.55$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…bca3backed Yes | 69c | 195.65$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…53a3backed Yes | 66c | 186$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 28c | 180.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…eb60backed Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc92…7505backed No | 48c | 147.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…3545backed Yes | 64c | 111.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Yes | 78c | 72.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked Yes | 80c | 57.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…07d1backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…28e9backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked Yes | 56c | 50.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 72c | 46.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…586ebacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…8cbdbacked Yes | 79c | 28.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…f668backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 September 8–14?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3700 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3900 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4100 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4400 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4700 September 8–14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4900 September 8–14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.