Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a76c99b37901022a681ade76475473cbbcd7b206afd48fcdc78a146a3c1d9ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 13,787$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c0…81d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,849$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…7b5abacked No | 79c | 6,730$5,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.8 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…824bbacked No | 49c | 5,600$2,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,860.45 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 35c | 5,345$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.94 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 67c | 4,413$2,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.45 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2cda…f20cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,184$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +123%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked Yes | 4c | 3,920$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.64 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,229$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…7547backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3e…e671backed Yes | 19c | 2,591$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd0…5aedbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 37c | 2,478$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.63 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 68c | 1,838$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.93 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0921…263ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,800$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,507$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Yes | 14c | 740$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 45c | 614.29$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.15 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…5515backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4958backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 24c | 378$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 75c | 355$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…9f5abacked Yes | 32c | 235$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 16c | 204.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82d…c878backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…c903backed No | 74c | 114$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Yes | 26c | 96.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 19c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b2…7124backed Yes | 71c | 53.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004d…7b1dbacked No | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb105…1a12backed Yes | 73c | 50.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b36…147bbacked Yes | 71c | 49.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…d1e3backed Yes | 72c | 49.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…32d8backed Yes | 74c | 49.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…acffbacked Yes | 73c | 49.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f0f2backed Yes | 72c | 48.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1af…46e5backed Yes | 78c | 48.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…fdecbacked Yes | 72c | 48.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…e1e5backed Yes | 74c | 47.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fa…a7ffbacked Yes | 72c | 46.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfa…fa0dbacked Yes | 73c | 46.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…c697backed Yes | 79c | 46.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…5d2abacked Yes | 73c | 46.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…de81backed Yes | 71c | 45.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x719a…572ebacked Yes | 72c | 45.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…9c21backed Yes | 71c | 45.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb2…6515backed Yes | 73c | 45.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…119dbacked Yes | 73c | 44.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…b75cbacked Yes | 73c | 44.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…f5febacked Yes | 73c | 44.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…5fe8backed Yes | 73c | 42.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x513e…8f29backed Yes | 77c | 42.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebe…a6a3backed Yes | 80c | 38.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…586ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaf…e2e0backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…33d5backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 6-12?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,100 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,400 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,900 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,100 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.