Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 October 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a5193bf829a37b128c8229fb975e3160922fbed3192976b82236b621a899ace
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 11c | 8,598$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.65 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 52c | 5,623$2,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,923.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd1…2365backed No | 58c | 5,175$3,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 59c | 3,900$2,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd0…5aedbacked Yes | 58c | 2,603$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed No | 11c | 2,300$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 66c | 1,547$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.33 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…824bbacked No | 14c | 1,090$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.58 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 60c | 718.35$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.48 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked No | 46c | 350$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked No | 48c | 300$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked No | 57c | 253.37$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…9a6abacked No | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…9aa1backed No | 57c | 247.65$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 21c | 190$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…9bd8backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed Yes | 51c | 102.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…db56backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…4bf3backed No | 52c | 57.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…1125backed Yes | 52c | 36.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4a…c394backed Yes | 47c | 22.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 October 6-12?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,100 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,400 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,900 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,100 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.