Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4,100 October 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x080fadf22bdb68bfa6dc7149b20450b96ef5af14e2f37f8a902b4e2080cb2135
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3e8…c650backed No | 0c | 49,962$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked No | 55c | 10,053$5,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,540 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 19c | 4,698$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 49c | 4,019$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,034.23 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 31c | 2,517$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.72 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked No | 77c | 2,100$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.72 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 21c | 1,335$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…1396backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 1cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 62c | 1,000$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 23c | 651.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 63c | 560$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.8 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b50…77a2backed Yes | 25c | 277.68$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.26 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +13.9wins | +0.20per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 65c | 131.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.16 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 122$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…610fbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738c…1de9backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,100 October 6-12?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,400 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,900 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,100 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.